El Clasico Inquisition: Will The Liga Title Be Decided At The Santiago Bernabeu?
Here we are: the most anticipated match in La Liga football has finally arrived. Contrary to the psychologically calming statements of the past few weeks by both Barcelona and Real Madrid players/coaches that El Clasico represents nothing more than three points out of the remaining eight fixtures of the season, in many ways, this one is for all the marbles.
Yes, strictly speaking, El Clasico is, in fact, just three paltry points out of the remaining 24 available in the Liga race and a champion will not be explicitly crowned by the outcome of this Saturday’s mouth-watering match. But in a match featuring the two giants of Spanish football in a blood rivalry, to believe that El Clasico is nothing more than one game out of eight would seem to contradict the match’s name. El Gran Clasico, The Great Clasico, The Clasico of Clasicos, is arguably the greatest match in all of club football and in truth, the winner of this contest could very well take the first definitive step in lifting the Primera title.
In Barcelona, El Clasico is irrelevant… at least that is how coach Pep Guardiola addressed the press last week when asked about the match. “El Clasico is the least important match of those that remain”, said the Barca coach in comments clearly intended to acquit his players of pressure and keep them focused on the tasks at hand, namely Saturday’s Liga fixture against Athletic and the Champions League quarter-final against Arsenal.
In truth, El Clasico is anything but irrelevant to Guardiola and his team. Instead, if one reads a bit further into Pep’s comments, he is simply saying that Real Madrid will be like any other team Barcelona face or have faced during the course of the season. But approaching every match the same is not to say that Barca will be casual about El Clasico - in fact, quite the contrary.
Having won six trophies last year, both coach and players are experienced in knowing exactly what is required of them in terms of focus, effort, and communication needed for every competitive affair they play, whether they be facing lowly Xerez at the Camp Nou or Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. What’s more, remarkably, Barca are beginning to play better football than they ever have before - while they have not been scoring five or six goals a game, they have been more dominant, averaging nearly 70% possession in matches and stretching opposing defences to their limits with their one-touch passing.
In the first half against Arsenal at the Emirates, despite inexplicably not being able to get on the scoresheet, Barcelona took their trademarked beautiful football to new heights and dominated the Gunners in front of their own north London crowd. Arsenal fans know their team were extraordinarily lucky to get a draw out of last week’s fixture and they will be the first to admit it. If Barca were able to impose their style against a team lauded as one of the Premier League’s most attractive footballing sides, one can only speculate how they may run ragged what has been a clinical but lacklustre Real Madrid team in front of a Santiago Bernabeu public desperately longing for attractive football.
In Real Madrid, El Clasico is all that is left. Having been embarrassed in the Copa del Rey, tragically eliminated from the Champions League yet again in the first round of the knockout stages, and losing their first Clasico this season at the Camp Nou by a 1-0 scoreline (albeit a very well-fought match), no Madridista would appreciate a Liga title won through points earned against the rest of the teams in La Primera.
After losing the past three Clasico fixtures and the last one in the Bernabeu by an historic 6-2 scoreline, this match means everything to Los Blancos not just in terms of the title race, but also in terms of confidence. Even if Madrid were to win the Liga crown, the sheen of the trophy would be far less bright in the wake of a Clasico defeat - especially if Barca manage to win the Champions League title on Madrid’s home pitch.
While Barcelona have been playing in another world this season, it is still somewhat surprising to remember that Madrid actually hold first place in the current league table. Equal on points, Madrid hold the advantage in terms of goal differential and have surprisingly had a better second half to the season than Barca, at least in La Primera. But despite the excellent string of results, Los Blancos still have everything to prove.
Yes, Madrid have continued to win in La Liga. But those victories have by and large come by way of a few particularly brilliant flashes of skill rather than thoroughly dominant performances from the opening whistle to the final minutes of stoppage time. Los Blancos have managed to put together a few strong matches from start to finish, most notably against bogey team Deportivo La Coruna. But for the most part, their wins have been relatively unremarkable and their play inconsistent, especially compared to the manner in which Barcelona have secured results, relentlessly assaulting their opponents until they break under the pressure and are simply snuffed out.
In El Clasico, Madrid have a chance to show that they can in fact perform in big matches, that they can in fact play beautiful football, and that they do in fact deserve to be La Liga champions. But at the moment, Barcelona are in firm command of all of those qualities. So what does a result in El Clasico mean for either team? In my view, the three possible outcomes to the match yield the following implications:
Over the final seven fixtures of the season after El Clasico, Barcelona face Deportivo, travel to Espanyol for El Derbi Barcelones, host Xerez, visit Villarreal, host Tenerife, travel to Sevilla, and finish against Valladolid in the Camp Nou. Of those matches, the away fixtures at Espanyol, Villarreal, and Sevilla present the main difficulties. For Real Madrid, the road after El Clasico seems a bit more difficult. It begins at Almeria, then they welcome Valencia to the Bernabeu, travel to face Zaragoza in the raucous Romareda, host Osasuna, travel to the Ono Estadi to face Mallorca, entertain Athletic at home, and travel to Malaga. Of those matches, the fixtures against Valencia, Zaragoza, and Mallorca look to be the most complicated.
Scenario 1: Should Barca win El Clasico, I believe the Liga race will effectively be over. Despite only a three point differential, a Clasico defeat would cast the entire Real Madrid organization into uncertainty as the final chance at a title this season would be in doubt and Los Merengues would have lost every single one of their high-stakes matches against quality opponents this season. The Madrid press would become bloodthirsty and the Blanco boardroom could be forced into picking a scapegoat - most likely Manuel Pellegrini.
With their coach on the rocks and with poor spirits in the wake of defeat, finding the motivation to claw back into the race and hope for a Blaugrana slip-up could be too much to ask of Los Blancos. While there would still a number of points to pick up in La Liga, a Madrid defeat in Saturday’s match could well prove any talk of mathematical possibilities to be moot.
Scenario 2: Should Barca and Madrid draw in Saturday’s match, I believe the Liga race will still be contentious, but Barca will hold the advantage and likely not relinquish it. Madrid will be in the back seat having lost the head-to-head record and it would take an unlikely slip up by the Blaugrana and a concurrent capitalisation by Los Blancos for the trophy to return to the Spanish capital. Backing into a title is difficult and smart money would stick with Pep Guardiola’s troops in the event of a Clasico draw.
Scenario 3: Should Madrid manage to win El Clasico, I believe the Liga will still be wide open, despite Madrid holding the three-point advantage. Los Blancos face some very difficult opponents in the final Primera fixtures and even in the event of a win, they would still have much to prove in terms of having the mental fortitude to win a title. A Clasico victory would be a great step forward, but the other shoe still needs to drop for the team to win La Liga.
While it is true that pride and bragging rights do not win titles, the confidence garnered after a winning a match with as high a stake as El Clasico, tends to buoy a side. If anything, last year can be taken as an important example. Heading into El Clasico, Madrid were just three points adrift of Barca with a chance to challenge for the title. While the race was in no way mathematically over after Barca destroyed Madrid 6-2, Los Blancos collapsed in the final weeks of the season with four crushing defeats in a row.
There is, in fact, much more at stake than a three-point prize. To the winner goes control of one’s fate while the loser must take care of business while still praying for a slip up by the rival. The sense of confidence that comes from being in control of one’s destiny makes the last seven matches far easier to manage. And so close to the end of the season, a team’s state of mind is just as important (if not more) as a team’s performance on the pitch.
Yes, strictly speaking, El Clasico is, in fact, just three paltry points out of the remaining 24 available in the Liga race and a champion will not be explicitly crowned by the outcome of this Saturday’s mouth-watering match. But in a match featuring the two giants of Spanish football in a blood rivalry, to believe that El Clasico is nothing more than one game out of eight would seem to contradict the match’s name. El Gran Clasico, The Great Clasico, The Clasico of Clasicos, is arguably the greatest match in all of club football and in truth, the winner of this contest could very well take the first definitive step in lifting the Primera title.
In Barcelona, El Clasico is irrelevant… at least that is how coach Pep Guardiola addressed the press last week when asked about the match. “El Clasico is the least important match of those that remain”, said the Barca coach in comments clearly intended to acquit his players of pressure and keep them focused on the tasks at hand, namely Saturday’s Liga fixture against Athletic and the Champions League quarter-final against Arsenal.
In truth, El Clasico is anything but irrelevant to Guardiola and his team. Instead, if one reads a bit further into Pep’s comments, he is simply saying that Real Madrid will be like any other team Barcelona face or have faced during the course of the season. But approaching every match the same is not to say that Barca will be casual about El Clasico - in fact, quite the contrary.
Having won six trophies last year, both coach and players are experienced in knowing exactly what is required of them in terms of focus, effort, and communication needed for every competitive affair they play, whether they be facing lowly Xerez at the Camp Nou or Real Madrid at the Bernabeu. What’s more, remarkably, Barca are beginning to play better football than they ever have before - while they have not been scoring five or six goals a game, they have been more dominant, averaging nearly 70% possession in matches and stretching opposing defences to their limits with their one-touch passing.
In the first half against Arsenal at the Emirates, despite inexplicably not being able to get on the scoresheet, Barcelona took their trademarked beautiful football to new heights and dominated the Gunners in front of their own north London crowd. Arsenal fans know their team were extraordinarily lucky to get a draw out of last week’s fixture and they will be the first to admit it. If Barca were able to impose their style against a team lauded as one of the Premier League’s most attractive footballing sides, one can only speculate how they may run ragged what has been a clinical but lacklustre Real Madrid team in front of a Santiago Bernabeu public desperately longing for attractive football.
In Real Madrid, El Clasico is all that is left. Having been embarrassed in the Copa del Rey, tragically eliminated from the Champions League yet again in the first round of the knockout stages, and losing their first Clasico this season at the Camp Nou by a 1-0 scoreline (albeit a very well-fought match), no Madridista would appreciate a Liga title won through points earned against the rest of the teams in La Primera.
After losing the past three Clasico fixtures and the last one in the Bernabeu by an historic 6-2 scoreline, this match means everything to Los Blancos not just in terms of the title race, but also in terms of confidence. Even if Madrid were to win the Liga crown, the sheen of the trophy would be far less bright in the wake of a Clasico defeat - especially if Barca manage to win the Champions League title on Madrid’s home pitch.
While Barcelona have been playing in another world this season, it is still somewhat surprising to remember that Madrid actually hold first place in the current league table. Equal on points, Madrid hold the advantage in terms of goal differential and have surprisingly had a better second half to the season than Barca, at least in La Primera. But despite the excellent string of results, Los Blancos still have everything to prove.
Yes, Madrid have continued to win in La Liga. But those victories have by and large come by way of a few particularly brilliant flashes of skill rather than thoroughly dominant performances from the opening whistle to the final minutes of stoppage time. Los Blancos have managed to put together a few strong matches from start to finish, most notably against bogey team Deportivo La Coruna. But for the most part, their wins have been relatively unremarkable and their play inconsistent, especially compared to the manner in which Barcelona have secured results, relentlessly assaulting their opponents until they break under the pressure and are simply snuffed out.
In El Clasico, Madrid have a chance to show that they can in fact perform in big matches, that they can in fact play beautiful football, and that they do in fact deserve to be La Liga champions. But at the moment, Barcelona are in firm command of all of those qualities. So what does a result in El Clasico mean for either team? In my view, the three possible outcomes to the match yield the following implications:
Over the final seven fixtures of the season after El Clasico, Barcelona face Deportivo, travel to Espanyol for El Derbi Barcelones, host Xerez, visit Villarreal, host Tenerife, travel to Sevilla, and finish against Valladolid in the Camp Nou. Of those matches, the away fixtures at Espanyol, Villarreal, and Sevilla present the main difficulties. For Real Madrid, the road after El Clasico seems a bit more difficult. It begins at Almeria, then they welcome Valencia to the Bernabeu, travel to face Zaragoza in the raucous Romareda, host Osasuna, travel to the Ono Estadi to face Mallorca, entertain Athletic at home, and travel to Malaga. Of those matches, the fixtures against Valencia, Zaragoza, and Mallorca look to be the most complicated.
Scenario 1: Should Barca win El Clasico, I believe the Liga race will effectively be over. Despite only a three point differential, a Clasico defeat would cast the entire Real Madrid organization into uncertainty as the final chance at a title this season would be in doubt and Los Merengues would have lost every single one of their high-stakes matches against quality opponents this season. The Madrid press would become bloodthirsty and the Blanco boardroom could be forced into picking a scapegoat - most likely Manuel Pellegrini.
With their coach on the rocks and with poor spirits in the wake of defeat, finding the motivation to claw back into the race and hope for a Blaugrana slip-up could be too much to ask of Los Blancos. While there would still a number of points to pick up in La Liga, a Madrid defeat in Saturday’s match could well prove any talk of mathematical possibilities to be moot.
Scenario 2: Should Barca and Madrid draw in Saturday’s match, I believe the Liga race will still be contentious, but Barca will hold the advantage and likely not relinquish it. Madrid will be in the back seat having lost the head-to-head record and it would take an unlikely slip up by the Blaugrana and a concurrent capitalisation by Los Blancos for the trophy to return to the Spanish capital. Backing into a title is difficult and smart money would stick with Pep Guardiola’s troops in the event of a Clasico draw.
Scenario 3: Should Madrid manage to win El Clasico, I believe the Liga will still be wide open, despite Madrid holding the three-point advantage. Los Blancos face some very difficult opponents in the final Primera fixtures and even in the event of a win, they would still have much to prove in terms of having the mental fortitude to win a title. A Clasico victory would be a great step forward, but the other shoe still needs to drop for the team to win La Liga.
While it is true that pride and bragging rights do not win titles, the confidence garnered after a winning a match with as high a stake as El Clasico, tends to buoy a side. If anything, last year can be taken as an important example. Heading into El Clasico, Madrid were just three points adrift of Barca with a chance to challenge for the title. While the race was in no way mathematically over after Barca destroyed Madrid 6-2, Los Blancos collapsed in the final weeks of the season with four crushing defeats in a row.
There is, in fact, much more at stake than a three-point prize. To the winner goes control of one’s fate while the loser must take care of business while still praying for a slip up by the rival. The sense of confidence that comes from being in control of one’s destiny makes the last seven matches far easier to manage. And so close to the end of the season, a team’s state of mind is just as important (if not more) as a team’s performance on the pitch.
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